Free NBA Picks & Predictions - Today's Best NBA Bets (2024)

We played Brown Over 2.5 assists (-130) in Game 2, and he easily got there by the end of the first quarter. With the Game 3 price adjusting and opening at 3.5 (+125), I'm still hitting the button on the Over because I believe this prop needs a much more aggressive move to be in the window where it should be trading. The Celtics are matchup hunting Luka Doncic with Brown and Jayson Tatum, and it's allowing both players to consistently get in the lane, collapse the defense, and generate potential assists. Brown has 8 and 12 potential assists in the first two games, which is a massive number and should have your attention with this prop trading at 3.5 (+125). The problem for the Mavericks is they don't have any defensive counters, and if they change their rotations in Game 3, their point-of-attack defense could actually be worse. Brown is projected to have 4 assists on Wednesday, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -126.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 10 hrs, 55 min ago.

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I bet on this in Game 2 and didn’t win, as Washington finished the game with only one assist. However, nothing changes for me in Game 3, and I'm going right back to this bet. Jason Kidd said he wants Washington to play more of a Magic Johnson role, and Josh Hart mentioned that one of his adjustments would be to put Washington on the ball more to take the pressure off Doncic and Irving. A line of 1.5 assists (+100) is accurate for Washington when his role is to stand in the corner and shoot three-pointers, but that is not his role in this series. He is setting screens, putting the ball on the floor, and getting into the lane against the Celtics, and this role could further expand in Game 3. Washington is projected to have 2 assists in Game 3 against the Celtics, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -133.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 10 hrs, 48 min ago.

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In Game 2, Gafford's assists prop was set at 0.5 (-130), and while the price caught my eye, I hadn’t seen anything on film to suggest we should target this number. That changes for Game 3 after how the Mavericks utilized Gafford in Game 2. Throughout the NBA playoffs, Gafford has mostly been used as a lob threat, but with the Celtics opting to leave Jayson Tatum on Gafford instead of Kristaps Porzingis or Al Horford to disrupt the Mavericks' pick-and-roll game, we saw the Mavericks counter by dumping the ball into the post for Gafford. Gafford capitalized with multiple buckets, and if the Mavericks continue to utilize him in this fashion, we should see an uptick in potential assists for the Mavericks center. Gafford is projected to have 1.2 assists against the Celtics, which allows us to price the Over 0.5 assists at -203.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 10 hrs, 38 min ago.

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