On Saturday, Boise State takes on Utah State once again. The two were paired together in the WAC before both joining the Mountain West in 2013 and now both schools will move to the PAC-12 in 2026. This is the 29th meeting between the two schools and the 12th straight season the two will face each other. The Broncos are riding an 8 game winning steak against the Aggies and are 20-1 against Utah State since 1998.
Info:
#21 Boise State (3-1) vs Utah State (1-3)
Kickoff: 5:00 PM MT on FS1
Location: Albertsons Stadium
Odds: Boise State -27 O/U 66
What to expect from Utah State
Utah State's season started off on the wrong foot. Head coach Blake Anderson was fired in July for with Title IX noncompliance. Defensive Coordinator Nate Dreiling was promoted to Interim head coach and has started his tenure with a 1-3 record. The Aggies come into this one with a three game losing streak. In their three games against FBS opponents they're 0-3 with and are giving up 44 points per game. The offense has had some encouraging signs, including a 21 point outing against a Utah defense that ranks top-20 in the nation in most metrics; however, the defense has been massively concerning particularly in the front seven. Utah State has given up 180 or more yards on the ground in all three FBS games and has just two sacks in those games.
The Broncos should be able to move the ball at will against this Aggies front. Look for the offensive line in particular to dominate. Conversely, Utah State WR Jalen Royals is one of the best receivers in the conference and will give Boise State's secondary a sold test.
What does Ashton Jeanty need to do to stay on Heisman pace?
I wrote earlier this week about Ashton Jeanty's chase for Barry Sander's record. If that's the standard to win a Heisman Trophy for Jeanty (it shouldn't be, but since Jeanty is a G5 player, it probably is) here is what Jeanty has to do the rest of the wat to get there.
Barry Sander's 1988 season was 2,628 rushing yards and 37 touchdowns. To maintain pace for breaking those numbers, Ashton Jeanty will need 199 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns on Saturday. Given Utah State's struggles in the front seven, I think those are realistic numbers for Jeanty to achieve.
Rodney Robinson emerging as Boise's Swiss army knife
Two weeks ago I wrote about how Rodney was quietly Boise's most improved player. That improvement has not slowed down in the two weeks since. After being a full-time starter the past two seasons, Robinson moved into more of a rotational role this year and it is paying dividends. Erik Chinander is moving Rodney all over the field, so far this season Rodney's seen:
85 snaps as a slot corner
40 snaps in the box as a linebacker or strong safety
22 snaps lined up on the defensive line
4 snaps as a deep safety
1 snap at outside corner
Last season, Robinson had 0 snaps on the DL and took almost half his snaps lined up as a deep safety. Moving Benefield to Free Safety has allowed Robinson to play closer to the line of scrimmage and wreck offensive gameplans. Robinson had 5 tackles, including a sack, against Washington State to add to what's been a stellar season. Robinson has been excellent in coverage allowing just 9 targets on 86 coverage snaps and 5.2 yards per target (down from 7.0 last season). He's chipped in as a pass rusher, with 2 sacks on the season and has been a key contributor in the run game. As stands, Rodney Robinson is the #1 graded Bronco on this defense per PFF. Look for Robinson to have another big game against the Aggies.
Keys to a Bronco Victory
Run. The. Ball.: Utah State's run defense is one of the worst in college football. The Broncos should be able to exert their will on the ground. Anything less than 200 yards for Jeanty should be a win for the Aggies. I get fans want to see Maddux Madsen have a big game, but don't overcomplicate things and feed Jeanty and this running back room.
Limit Jalen Royals: Royals is the Aggies best player, and it isn't particularly close. He had 10 catches for over 100 yards against Temple last time out. One of the few ways Utah State can make this game competitive is if Royals has a massive day.
Don't play with your food: At the end of the day, this is one that the Broncos should dominate in. The spread is almost four touchdowns and anything less than a double digit victory would be a shocking result. Broncos need to avoid coming out slow and can't let Utah State hang around. Come out hot, take a lead, and hold it.
Bronco Breakout candidates
Last week we saw huge games from Ty Benefield, Herbert Gums and Matt Lauter. This team has been finding someone new each week to step up and take center stage. Here are my guesses on who does it this week.
I think Jambres Dubar gets it going this week. Last week against Wazzu was Dubar's first game of the season after he was held out with a lower body injury to start the year. Breezy had -4 yards. Not a great start to the year. Look for Koetter to give Dubar chances this week to lighten Jeanty's workload and come away with a really nice game.
On the other side of the ball, Davon Banks quietly had a nice day for the Broncos last week. While Earby got a majority of the snaps at CB2, Banks had a nice showing in a limited role. I think Banks gets more opportunity this week against a decent Utah State WR room and proves himself with another good day.
Medical tent
HB Sire Gaines – Gaines suffered a lower body injury after a hipdrop tackle against Portland State and missed last week. Danielson said Gaines will be a game time decision last week,but the belief is that he is lost for the season.
G Roger Carreon – Carreon went down in the Oregon game and left on a cart. He missed the last two weeks and Coach Keane mentioned him having a broken leg, doesn't seem likely to return anytime soon.
WR Chris Marshall – Marshall missed the last two games game after suffering a lower leg injury against Oregon.
WR Latrell Caples – Caples quietly got hurt against Portland State and was held out of the Washington State game. Let's see if he's back this week. If not, expect Chase Penry and Cameron Bates to fill his role in the slot.
C Mason Randolph – It was officially announced that Mason Randolph will miss the rest of the year.
Analytic Projections:
With college football data getting better, CFB analytics are getting more and more accurate. Here are what three of the top analytical power ratings are projecting for this game (as well as my own personal power ratings):
Sagarin: Boise State by 26 (48-22)
SP+: Boise State by 26 (46-20)
FPI: Boise State by 30
NC PR: Boise State by 29 (46-17)
Final Prediction:
#21 Boise State 48, Utah State 24
This is one Boise should handle with relative easy. My numbers have it 46-17, I made it 48 for Boise because it's a cleaner number to get to (6 touchdowns and 2 field goals) and I threw in a garbage time touchdown for Utah State to make it 48-24.
I think the game goes relatively quick. Boise runs the ball ~70% of the time and keeps the clock moving. Jeanty eclipses the 1,000 yard mark on the season in a 220 yard, 3 touchdown performance. Maddux Madsen cleans up some of the accuracy issues and finishes 15/19 for 205 yards.
Did you know, despite only playing in four games, Boise State leads the nation in sacks, with 20? A large part of that is the sheer quantity of dropbacks for Portland State, Georgia Southern and Washington State; still… we take it! Boise extends that lead with a five sack performance against the Aggies. Hassanein grabs 2, Ripp, Fely and Virgen-Morgan all chip in as well. Jalen Royals gets his, but secondary plays well enough to get stops and get the win.
Also of importance, it's a 5:00 PM kickoff, the weather is gorgeous and Bronco Nation gets to enjoy one last beautiful Fall game on the Blue before their next home tilt in four weeks.
No context Mountain West Predictions:
UNLV 30, Syracuse 21
Navy 20, Air Force 10
Oregon State 23, Colorado State 14
Nevada 28, San Jose State 22
San Diego State 20, Hawai'I 16
Last week:
Boise State 41, Washington State 36 (Boise won 45-24)
UNLV 30, Fresno State 24 (UNLV won 59-14)
San Diego State 20, Central Michigan 16 (CMU won 22-21)
New Mexico 40, New Mexico State 23 (New Mexico won 50-40)
Air Force 16, Wyoming 3 (Wyoming won 31-19)
